Calm Before the Storm

The current climate has rejuvenated my desire to write.

The current climate has rejuvenated me to get back to writing.

I’m hearing from young investors eagerly waiting on the sidelines “tell me when to buy, I’m ready”. As a long term investor, I applaud them for not panicking — don’t panic — but we are far from the bottom.

Most of us were too young to remember the 2007 or 1999 crash. Beyond the fundamentals, what crashes and corrections really do is change consumer confidence. Confidence is easy to lose and hard to gain.

Yesterday, 80,000 people filed for unemployment in California. That is 40x the typical number filed per day. I assume if you’re trying to figure out when to invest, you’re one of the lucky ones.

Our social circles and bubbles truly limit us to understand the severity of this crisis. Millions of people will be laid off as companies try to preserve cash and stay alive.

Many will argue this is temporary and that the economy was healthy before the crash.

I tend to agree and be a long term optimist. However, you only know when you’re sick when you start showing symptoms. Once you are bedridden, blood circulation declines and other problems start arising. As the days increase, the road to recovery gets longer.

Our debt overloaded economy hides critical cash flow issues companies have — the symptoms are just starting to show.

History has shown our enamor towards debt — an exponential factor in good and bad times. At times like these, we are reminded how much we have overdosed on it. Overdosing causes rash and violent volatility to ones heart rate — eventually settling down. Nobody knows, but I imagine it will take at-least 6–9 months to settle down before we start to recover.

Like maintaining health, times like these also remind us the best way to invest is to do it consistently. I have found great ease and confidence in continuing to auto-invest in the market.

We are just pulling up to the doctor’s office.